This is James Ibori Fmr Governor of Delta state with President Tinubu who is focused on strengthening the APC because of the 2027 presidential election, while Mr. Peter Obi is traveling extensively and Atiku is nowhere to be found; later, they will seek a political party that will favor them with a consensus ticket.
Can either Atiku or PO stop PBAT now, without paying much attention to their parties strength?
As Nigeria quietly braces for the 2027 general elections, a silent political recalibration is unfolding. At the center of this evolution is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT), whose political instincts are as sharp as ever. Behind the scenes, and sometimes in plain sight, Tinubu is laying the groundwork for what appears to be an ambitious re-election bid. A significant moment in this strategy was his recent meeting with former Delta State governor, James Ibori — a calculated move that underscores Tinubu’s focus on strengthening the All Progressives Congress (APC) across all geopolitical zones.
In stark contrast, his leading opponents, Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), appear to be drifting on a different political current. Peter Obi continues to travel widely, both locally and abroad, engaging audiences but often without a visible, coordinated ground game for his party. Atiku, meanwhile, has remained largely absent from public discourse, surfacing occasionally on social media or in international settings. This raises a critical question: can either Obi or Atiku stop Tinubu in 2027 without paying closer attention to the foundational strength of their parties?
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When Tinubu met with James Ibori, political analysts took notice. Ibori, despite his controversial past, remains an influential figure in the Niger Delta and particularly within Delta State politics. This engagement was not merely symbolic; it was a signal that Tinubu is courting entrenched power blocs in preparation for the next electoral cycle. It is the type of backroom political maneuvering for which Tinubu is famously adept.
This meeting follows a string of similar alignments. Just recently, Delta Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa dumped the PDP for the APC, taking with them the state party chairman, 25 local government chairpersons, the deputy governor, the Speaker of the Delta House of Assembly, and several House of Reps members. That mass exodus is no coincidence; it reflects a widening confidence in Tinubu’s leadership and electoral magnetism within power circles.
The APC under Tinubu is not just focused on high-level alliances. The President is also reportedly funding efforts to energize the party’s grassroots structures—from local ward leaders to youth coordinators. It is this meticulous attention to party cohesion and street-level mobilization that fueled his 2023 victory, and it seems he is doubling down for 2027.
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In contrast, Atiku Abubakar’s approach appears increasingly passive. After five attempts at the presidency, his political capital is showing signs of fatigue. His absence from the national scene and his seeming disengagement from PDP’s internal crises suggest a lack of urgency or strategic recalibration. The PDP itself is in disarray, suffering internal factionalism, defections, and diminishing public trust. Without a strong showing in the grassroots, and with leaders like Okowa abandoning ship, Atiku’s base is crumbling beneath his feet.
Peter Obi, on the other hand, enjoys a cult-like following among the youth and urban elites. His candidacy in 2023 energized millions, particularly in the South-East and parts of the South-South. However, charisma alone cannot win an election. The Labour Party remains structurally weak, poorly funded, and lacking in the kind of internal discipline and machinery that drives successful political campaigns. Obi’s frequent travels, while commendable in terms of visibility, often seem disconnected from the reality of building and sustaining a political movement.
While Tinubu is seen in the trenches of realpolitik, Peter Obi is more visible on lecture stages and diaspora engagements. Both are important, but the latter cannot replace the former. Politics in Nigeria is not won in boardrooms or auditoriums but in market squares, town halls, and polling units.
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Stopping an incumbent president in Nigeria is no small feat. Historically, it has rarely happened. The power of incumbency confers both tangible and intangible advantages—from access to state resources and security architecture to control over narratives and timing. For either Obi or Atiku to mount a credible challenge, they must begin by rebuilding their parties from the ground up.
In Atiku’s case, that may mean stepping aside for a younger, more vibrant candidate while playing the role of a kingmaker. He may also need to negotiate a new PDP identity—one that resonates with a broader base of Nigerians beyond his traditional northern strongholds.
Obi, meanwhile, must professionalize the Labour Party, investing in local government structures, party education, and national coordination. He must also start forging alliances—not just with civil society but with political heavyweights who can deliver votes, not just applause.
One dangerous trap both opposition camps may fall into is hoping for a “consensus candidate” scenario as we saw in 2015 with Buhari. But the context is different. The APC was a robust merger of parties with a single goal: unseat Jonathan. In 2027, the political landscape is fragmented, and the ideological motivations are less clear.
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Waiting for a miracle consensus ticket without laying the groundwork may prove disastrous. Politics rewards the prepared, not the wishful. Tinubu is building now, brick by brick. If Obi and Atiku wait till 2026 to start meaningful political engagement, it might be too late.
Structure is often an overlooked yet decisive element in Nigerian elections. APC has a nationwide reach, with formidable machinery at the ward, local government, and state levels. PDP once had this, but its foundation is eroding fast. Labour Party, while idealistic and youthful, lacks the boots-on-the-ground needed to challenge incumbency.
This structural advantage allowed APC to withstand its internal contradictions in 2023 and still come out victorious. Tinubu understands that victory is not only about popularity but about getting out the vote, protecting that vote, and owning the narrative.
Social media and televised town halls may present Obi as the more favorable candidate, and Atiku as the elder statesman, but elections are not won by perception alone. Real political work is being done behind the scenes—where money is spent, alliances are forged, and strategies executed. This is where Tinubu thrives. And until Obi or Atiku engage with this layer of politics, they remain on the periphery.
Nigeria’s electoral map is deeply shaped by ethnic, regional, and religious loyalties. Tinubu has made inroads into the South-South, with Delta being the latest example. He retains strong influence in the South-West and maintains significant connections in the North through alliances with governors and traditional rulers.
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Obi remains largely confined to the South-East and a few urban pockets. Atiku still holds sway in parts of the North, but defections and a lack of narrative control are eroding his grip. For either to be a threat to Tinubu, they must break out of their regional bubbles and become national movements with real muscle.
2027 might feel far away to the casual observer, but for seasoned politicians, the race has already begun. Tinubu is running that race with a calculator, a map, and a network. Obi and Atiku must decide whether they want to play the long game or merely make another symbolic run.
The next two years will be critical. Town hall meetings won’t cut it. Diaspora engagements won’t cut it. Rants on social media won’t cut it. Only serious political work—on the ground, in the trenches, with real people—will matter.
In politics, presence is power. Tinubu is present. Obi and Atiku are visible, but visibility without structure is merely optics. If 2027 is to be competitive, the opposition must stop hoping for a consensus miracle and start building a real political machine today.