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Who Will Win the 2025 Anambra Gubernatorial Election?

By Ozonkpu Chief Uche Nworah Ph.D

As the November 8, 2025, Anambra Gubernatorial Election approaches, it is shaping up to be a highly contested race, with three prominent candidates from three major political parties—APGA, Labour Party, and APC—standing at the forefront. While the race is competitive, certain dynamics, including the candidates’ political strengths, party affiliations, and the prevailing socio-political environment, will play significant roles in determining the victor. This analysis will delve into the factors that could influence the outcome of the election and offer an in-depth exploration of the potential winner.

The 2025 election is widely regarded as a three-horse race between Governor Charles Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), George Moghalu of the Labour Party (LP), and Tony Ukachukwu of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once a major force in Anambra politics, has postponed its primaries, and other smaller parties have remained largely inconsequential in this high-stakes contest. With the three leading candidates coming from Anambra South Senatorial District, it appears that zoning, a longstanding feature of Anambra politics, remains a decisive factor in the race.

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The positioning of these three candidates suggests that Anambra Central will emerge as the crucial battleground in the 2025 elections. Voters from this zone will play a significant role in determining which candidate best represents their interests and which party can align itself with their aspirations for the 2029 gubernatorial election. Should Soludo be re-elected, Anambra Central would likely have to wait for another cycle before the rotation of power returns to them. This dynamic could have a profound impact on how voters view the legitimacy of the 2025 race and which candidate they choose to support.

Governor Charles Soludo, running for re-election under the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), enters the race with the incumbent advantage. Incumbency is often seen as a powerful factor in Nigerian politics, and Soludo’s tenure thus far has garnered both praise and criticism. APGA, which has historically been a dominant force in Anambra politics, remains deeply rooted in the state’s political culture, with a strong grassroots network and a solid base of loyal supporters.

Soludo’s tenure has seen notable successes in infrastructure development, security improvements, and a focus on the state’s economic growth. His efforts to revamp Anambra’s economy and improve its global standing through strategic partnerships, particularly with international organizations and investors, will likely resonate with voters who value tangible progress. Furthermore, his strong ties to the Catholic Church—an influential institution in Anambra—are also seen as an asset, as many voters view a Catholic governor as a natural representative of their faith and values.

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However, Soludo faces challenges, particularly in navigating the political realities of incumbency. While many credit his administration for achievements in infrastructure and security, there are critics who argue that the pace of progress has been too slow or that certain sectors of society have been left behind. Additionally, the issues of economic inequality, youth unemployment, and the pervasive issue of voter inducement in Anambra elections could come back to haunt Soludo if he does not adequately address these concerns.

Nonetheless, Soludo’s strong position as the incumbent and his party’s historical dominance in Anambra politics cannot be underestimated. The APGA machine is well-oiled, and the party’s control over critical sectors of the state’s administration provides them with a considerable advantage going into the election. Political analysts often note that elections are “for the incumbents to lose,” suggesting that Soludo’s re-election is his to lose.

The Labour Party has seen a surge in popularity following the rise of Peter Obi, the former Governor of Anambra and the party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 general elections. This surge, often referred to as the “Peter Obi effect,” has significantly raised the profile of the party in the Southeast, and Anambra, Obi’s home state, is no exception. George Moghalu, the Labour Party’s candidate for governor, will be hoping to leverage this wave of support to secure victory in the election.

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Moghalu, a seasoned political figure with a history of serving in various capacities, brings experience to the table. His ability to build alliances across party lines and forge strong relationships within the political establishment gives him an edge in terms of coalition-building. Moghalu’s candidacy also appeals to voters who seek change from the status quo, particularly in light of the perceived dominance of APGA in Anambra politics. The Labour Party’s commitment to reforms, good governance, and the fight against corruption resonates with many voters, particularly the younger demographic who were inspired by Obi’s 2023 presidential campaign.

However, while the Labour Party enjoys emotional support in the region due to the Obi factor, it faces significant challenges in competing with the incumbency advantage of Soludo and the financial muscle of Ukachukwu’s APC. The party’s ability to mobilize resources for a state-wide election campaign will be critical. In Anambra politics, where financial power plays a crucial role, Labour’s ability to compete on equal footing with APGA and APC could be a significant hurdle.

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Another challenge for Moghalu is his religious affiliation. As a non-Catholic, he may struggle to attract Catholic voters, who make up a significant portion of the electorate. Church politics plays a pivotal role in Anambra, and non-Catholic candidates are often viewed with suspicion, especially given the influence of the Catholic Church in state politics. Despite this, there is a growing movement in the state advocating for a non-Catholic governor, which could potentially work in Moghalu’s favor if the movement gains traction.

The All Progressives Congress (APC), the party at the national level, brings significant resources to the table. With the backing of the federal government, APC candidates have access to deep pockets and the ability to mobilize financial resources on a scale that the other parties may find difficult to match. Tony Ukachukwu, the APC’s candidate, is a wealthy businessman who has invested heavily in his campaign, including making significant donations to religious institutions like St. Faith’s Cathedral in Awka. His financial resources could provide the necessary fuel for a well-funded and expansive campaign.

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However, Ukachukwu faces his own set of challenges. The APC’s recent history in Anambra has been marked by failures to unseat APGA. In both the 2017 and 2021 gubernatorial elections, APC-backed candidates failed to win the state, despite attempts to use federal power to influence the outcome. In 2017, APC’s attempts to intimidate Governor Willie Obiano’s re-election bid by withdrawing security details failed. Similarly, in 2021, despite attempts to lure Obiano’s deputy and state assembly members to the APC, the party was unable to break APGA’s grip on the state. This history raises concerns about whether APC can successfully execute its plans in 2025 or whether Anambra voters will reject its perceived overreach.

Furthermore, Ukachukwu, being of the Anglican faith, may also face the challenge of appealing to Catholic voters in Anambra, who form the majority of the electorate. While Ukachukwu’s visit to St. Faith’s Cathedral and his donation of N50 million may have endeared him to some within the Anglican community, he must also find ways to bridge the gap with Catholic voters. Without the full support of the Catholic Church, Ukachukwu could struggle to gather the necessary votes to secure a victory.

Anambra Central will be the political epicenter of the 2025 gubernatorial election. Historically, the zone has been a kingmaker in Anambra politics, and its voters will play a decisive role in determining the winner. The question of whether the people of Anambra Central will support Soludo, a candidate who represents Anambra South and would leave the zone without power until 2029, will be a critical one. Many from the region may view a re-election of Soludo as an extension of Anambra South’s political dominance, further delaying the return of power to their own zone.

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Moghalu and Ukachukwu, both from Anambra South, will need to carefully navigate this issue, making sure not to alienate voters from Anambra Central. Whether either of them promises to serve only one term or takes another approach will be key in garnering the necessary support from the region.

The 2025 Anambra Gubernatorial Election is undoubtedly a close race, with the outcome dependent on multiple factors: incumbency, party loyalty, religious influence, and resource mobilization. Governor Soludo, with his incumbent advantage and the support of APGA, remains the strong favorite. However, the rise of the Labour Party, bolstered by the Peter Obi effect, and the financial muscle of APC’s Ukachukwu, make this a race that is far from decided.

Ultimately, Soludo’s success will depend on his ability to convince voters that his second term is in their best interest, while Moghalu and Ukachukwu will need to overcome significant challenges, including religious dynamics and the question of political zoning. Anambra Central’s vote will be pivotal, and the candidate who can successfully address the concerns of this zone and present themselves as the best choice for the future of the state will likely emerge victorious.

For now, the contest is too close to call, but if the momentum continues in Soludo’s favor and if he can secure a broad coalition of voters, it is likely that Governor Charles Soludo will win a second term, barring unforeseen developments.

Who Will Win The 2025 Anambra Gubernatorial Election?

The November 8 Anambra Gubernatorial election is now a 3-horse race between the gubernatorial candidates of APGA, Labour Party, and APC. PDP postponed their primaries and nothing has been heard from the other parties. The three parties and their candidates have advantages and disadvantages going into that election.

The emergence of the three candidates, all from the Anambra South Senatorial District, is an indirect confirmation that zoning has come to stay in Anambra politics. The spirit of equity and fairness demands that power return to Anambra Central (my zone) in 2029. The zone will be the beautiful bride in this election. Voters from Anambra Central would need to consider where their interests are best protected. Go with APGA and Soludo who only has 4 more years to go before power hopefully returns to Anambra Central? Go with Moghalu or Ukachukwu who will be starting a fresh 4-year tenure and may likely extend to 8 years thereby shortchanging people of the zone?

The three candidates will have to work extra hard in their closing arguments when campaigns start in this regard. For Moghalu and Ukachukwu in particular, they have to carefully consider how they deal with this issue. Should they promise to stay only four years if voted in or should they keep silent on the issue so that they won’t make a promise that may be difficult to keep? This they have to mull over carefully with their campaign teams.

What do the parties and their candidates have going for them, and what are the challenges?

(1) APGA and their candidate Governor Soludo have the incumbent advantage. They enjoy grassroots support and the Governor will be going into the election on the back of performance and successes recorded in infrastructural development, security, etc. There is a saying in politics that elections are for the incumbents to lose meaning that the election is almost in their hands just as the English Premiership is almost in the hands of Liverpool FC. However, just like life has shown us, anything can happen. It’s not over until it’s over. After all Liverpool bottled their game on Sunday against Fulham. Governor Soludo being a Catholic is another advantage due to the Catholic church’s deeply rooted influence in Anambra politics.

(2) The Labour Party enjoys massive emotional support in the Southeast due to the Peter Obi effect. Anambra being Okwute’s home state is not any different. Their candidate George Moghalu, a veteran of politics will be hoping that the party will enjoy the wave one more time just like it did during the last general election. Chief Moghalu has over time built friendships and bridges and would have a few favours to call in from many people including people from other political parties. However, fighting an incumbent is never a tea party. Money plays big roles in Anambra elections. Those who know will tell you that voter inducement remains the order of the day. Does the Labour Party and their candidate have the war chest to execute a state-wide gubernatorial election? This is the question the party needs to answer as sympathy alone won’t be enough. Moghalu is a non-Catholic. The overbearing influence of church politics in Anambra state which many have been canvassing against may be a disadvantage. Recently a group led by Tony Ezekwelu held a press conference in the state canvassing for a conscious move to make a non-Catholic Governor. If this movement catches on, Moghalu will benefit from it.

(3) APC being the party at the Centre has the advantage of resource support. APC National if truly they have Anambra in their sights can easily mobilize funds to execute the election. The fear is that the party may go the Edo way but there have been online protests by many that ‘Anambra no be Edo’. The party at the centre tried that intimidation in the state in 2017 and 2021 but didn’t succeed. 2017 was so extreme that they withdrew all security aides attached to Governor Willie Obiano who was seeking re-election at the time. APC adopted a different tactic in 2021 and lured Governor Obiano’s deputy and most of the members of the state assembly over. It still did not work and APGA’s Soludo won. APC’s candidate Ukachukwu has a deep pocket which played a major role in his winning the primaries ticket. The party would have to find ways to appease some of its stakeholders who are disgruntled over the process and outcome of the last Gubernatorial primaries. Some of them have left the party and declared open support for other parties, especially the ruling party (APGA) in Anambra.

Ukachukwu is of the Anglican faith and faces the church politics challenge. He held a thanksgiving service at St. Faith’s Cathedral Awka following his successful gubernatorial nomination. He donated the sum of N50M to the church. Unless he has plans of also visiting a Catholic Church and doing the same, he may have already sent out the wrong signals to the Catholic community who are in the greater majority in the state.

We cannot say that the contest is too close to call. Political watchers who usually bring out their crystal balls during Anambra gubernatorial elections already have their gazes fixed on the candidate and party that they believe will be victorious.

Who is the candidate that will win the 2025 Anambra gubernatorial election? Call it!

By Ozonkpu Chief Uche Nworah Ph.D