UK Tories Consider Replacing Kemi Badenoch as Party Leader After Poor Ratings
Barely six months after her historic election as leader of the UK Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch finds herself at the center of internal rebellion and mounting pressure to step aside. Discontent is festering within Tory ranks as key figures weigh whether Badenoch — once hailed as the party’s fresh hope after a devastating electoral loss — is capable of steering the Conservatives through turbulent political waters ahead of the next general election in 2029.
As the local elections approach, the mood in Conservative Party circles has turned markedly sour. Once the darling of both the Tory grassroots and certain influential backbenchers, Badenoch is now fighting off growing calls for her replacement, even as allies plead for patience.
Interviews with over two dozen Conservative MPs and party officials, speaking to Bloomberg on the condition of anonymity, revealed a grim consensus: Badenoch’s leadership, while initially promising, has fallen flat. Her tenure has been marred by dwindling polling numbers, a failure to articulate a compelling vision, and an inability to prevent voters from flocking to Nigel Farage’s insurgent Reform Party.
The dissatisfaction has fueled quiet but increasingly organized discussions about replacing her. Chief among the names floated as potential successors is Robert Jenrick, the hardline Shadow Justice Secretary, whose firm stance on issues like immigration and crime has endeared him to the Conservative right.
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While Badenoch’s official spokesperson declined to comment on the situation, Jenrick’s camp has maintained a cautious loyalty, with a spokesperson pointing to public remarks in which he urged Conservatives to give Badenoch time. Yet behind the scenes, Jenrick’s rising popularity among party members cannot be ignored.
It is important to remember the political landscape Badenoch inherited. After the Conservatives suffered one of their worst defeats in modern history in the 2023 general election, with Labour securing a landslide victory under Sir Keir Starmer, the party was left in shambles. Rishi Sunak’s resignation opened the door for a bruising leadership contest that ultimately saw Badenoch emerge victorious on November 2, 2024.
Her election was historic. As a Black woman from an immigrant background leading Britain’s traditionalist party, Badenoch symbolized renewal. Yet her victory also came with high expectations — perhaps impossibly high given the enormity of the task.
Rebuilding a party after such a catastrophic loss requires not just charisma and media savvy but deep strategic acumen. Some insiders argue Badenoch was never given a fair chance. Others, however, contend she misread the mood of both the party and the country.
At the heart of the dissatisfaction lies a fundamental complaint: Badenoch is perceived as focusing on the wrong issues.
While voters, according to polls, prioritize crime, immigration, healthcare, and economic stability, Badenoch’s leadership has often emphasized culture war topics, such as opposition to transgender rights reforms and a skeptical stance on net-zero climate goals.
Critics within the party accuse her of failing to set a positive economic agenda or to effectively challenge Labour’s narratives on bread-and-butter issues. Moreover, her handling of Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) — a critical political theater in Westminster — has been widely panned. Analysts describe her performances as flat, with Sir Keir Starmer often turning her attacks back onto the Conservative Party’s own dismal record over the past fourteen years.
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“She’s good at making strong ideological points, but that’s not what the electorate is looking for right now,” said one senior Conservative MP. “People want competence, a clear plan, and hope.”
Badenoch’s troubles are exacerbated by the resurgence of Nigel Farage, the ever-present specter haunting the right wing of British politics. Farage’s Reform Party, once dismissed as a fringe outfit, has steadily gained traction among disaffected Tory voters.
Polling shows that Reform has overtaken the Conservatives in several working-class and rural constituencies — traditional Tory heartlands — thanks to Farage’s relentless focus on immigration, national sovereignty, and anti-establishment rhetoric.
For many Conservative MPs, the threat is existential. Losing votes to Labour is painful; hemorrhaging votes to Reform is catastrophic because it splits the right-wing base. Some fear a repeat of the Brexit Party effect seen during the 2019 European elections, when the Conservatives were nearly wiped out.
Against this backdrop, Badenoch’s perceived inability to “out-right” Farage or reassure centrist swing voters has left her in an impossible bind.
“She’s too right-wing for the center, and too centrist for the right,” lamented one party strategist. “She’s trapped.”
In these turbulent waters, Robert Jenrick has emerged as the candidate many see as better suited to rally the party.
Once a junior minister under Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, Jenrick resigned from Sunak’s cabinet over what he described as the government’s “weak” stance on illegal immigration. Since then, he has built a profile as a no-nonsense conservative willing to take tough positions on crime, law and order, and national sovereignty.
A recent ConservativeHome poll found that Jenrick enjoyed significantly higher approval ratings among party members compared to Badenoch. His clear messaging, telegenic presence, and loyalty to core Tory values have endeared him to MPs seeking a leader who can both shore up the base and make gains against Reform.
However, Jenrick’s candidacy is not without risk. Centrist Tories warn that shifting further right could alienate moderate voters, particularly in the suburbs and south of England — critical battlegrounds in any future general election.
“We cannot out-Farage Farage,” said a centrist MP. “We need to offer something better, not something angrier.”
The immediate trigger for any leadership change is likely to be the upcoming local elections. Set for May 2025, these elections are being treated within Tory ranks as an unofficial referendum on Badenoch’s leadership.
Polling suggests the Conservatives are heading toward a bloodbath. Losses are expected across councils and mayoralties they once controlled, with some projections indicating the worst performance for the party since the mid-1990s.
Professor Rob Ford, a political scientist at the University of Manchester, predicted a “total and unmitigated disaster” for the Tories. If the party’s losses are as bad as feared, Badenoch’s position could become untenable.
Already, some MPs are preparing letters of no confidence, the first step in triggering a leadership contest under party rules. While Badenoch could theoretically survive such a vote — particularly if the challenge is seen as opportunistic — a significant rebellion would fatally weaken her authority.
The debate over Badenoch’s future also reflects deeper fissures within the Conservative Party itself.
The Brexit referendum, the chaotic Johnson years, and the implosion of Liz Truss’s premiership left the party ideologically fractured and exhausted. Badenoch’s leadership was supposed to be a unifying force, but it has instead revealed how far apart the party’s factions remain.
Some traditionalists want a return to small-c conservatism: fiscal responsibility, law and order, a cautious foreign policy. Others, particularly among the younger, libertarian wing, want a more radical platform focused on civil liberties, anti-wokeness, and economic dynamism.
Still others advocate a populist approach, borrowing from Farage’s playbook and aggressively targeting immigration and globalization.
Badenoch’s attempt to straddle these factions has pleased few and alienated many.
If the Conservatives replace Badenoch, it would mark the fourth leadership change in less than three years — an astonishing level of instability for a party that once prided itself on being the “natural party of government.”
Such a move would not be without consequences. Leadership turmoil would likely dominate media coverage for weeks, overshadowing any policy announcements and reinforcing a perception of a party in terminal decline.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that Jenrick — or any other replacement — could reverse the Tories’ fortunes. Labour remains dominant in national polling, and Farage shows no signs of retreating. Even a more dynamic leader might find the party’s brand too toxic to rehabilitate in time for 2029.
That reality is not lost on Tory MPs. Some argue that sticking with Badenoch, despite her flaws, might be less damaging than another messy leadership contest.
“There’s a real risk we look even more ridiculous if we dump her now,” said one Conservative peer. “Voters hate divided parties.”
For now, Badenoch is playing for time. Her public statements have been notably restrained. Sources close to her suggest she is aware of the rumblings but believes that panicking would only make her position worse.
Instead, she is focused on surviving the local elections with minimal damage. If she can limit losses, rally her remaining supporters, and project a message of unity and renewal, she might yet stabilize her leadership.
It is a tall order — but not impossible. Politics can change quickly, and media narratives can shift overnight. A particularly bad scandal for Labour, or an overreach by Farage, could offer her breathing room.
In private, Badenoch remains confident that she can weather the storm. But even her closest allies acknowledge that the next six weeks will be decisive.
“She’s resilient,” said one senior aide. “She knows it’s bad, but she’s not giving up.”
The future of Kemi Badenoch’s leadership hangs by a thread. Beset by poor ratings, internal plotting, and the existential threat posed by Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, she faces the fight of her political life.
Whether she can survive — and whether replacing her would even save the Conservatives — remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that Britain’s oldest political party is once again facing a moment of profound crisis, with no easy answers in sight.
As the local elections loom, the choice before Conservative MPs and members is stark: stand by Badenoch and hope for a political miracle, or risk yet another leadership contest — and gamble everything on yet another change at the top.
The coming weeks will define not only Kemi Badenoch’s political fate but perhaps the future of the Conservative Party itself.
