Cabals Still Fighting Against Our Refinery — Dangote

Africa’s richest man, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, has never been one to shy away from economic combat. From conquering the cement and sugar industries to entering the oil refining space with a staggering $20 billion investment, the billionaire industrialist has etched his name in Nigeria’s economic narrative. But in a recent revelation, Dangote disclosed that his most ambitious project—the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery—is under sustained attack from powerful “cabals” entrenched in Nigeria’s oil import ecosystem.

Speaking at an investor forum in Lagos on Friday, May 2, 2025, Dangote voiced concerns that vested interests and entrenched monopolies are determined to sabotage the refinery’s progress. The international news outlet Semafor first reported his remarks, which have since reverberated across Nigeria’s political and economic spaces.

According to Dangote, the shadowy cabals he refers to are those who profited for decades from Nigeria’s notoriously opaque fuel subsidy regime. These groups, buoyed by political influence and access to foreign exchange, controlled the multibillion-dollar oil importation business. For them, the emergence of a fully functional, private-sector-owned refinery is not just competition—it’s an existential threat.

“For a very, very long time, those that have made a lot of money from government-subsidised oil imports into Nigeria were the ones trying to sabotage the $20 billion worth of refinery situated in Lekki, Lagos,” Dangote said.

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These interests, he alleged, have not only lobbied against his operations but also resisted the policy changes—especially President Bola Tinubu’s removal of petrol subsidies—that could give the Dangote Refinery a competitive edge in the Nigerian market.

While Dangote did not mention names, many industry watchers point to politically connected fuel importers and marketers who thrived under the subsidy regime. Between 2006 and 2022, Nigeria spent over $60 billion on fuel subsidies, much of it paid to importers who often delivered substandard, delayed, or even non-existent products—thanks to a flawed auditing system.

Several investigations and audits, including the 2012 report by the House of Representatives’ Ad Hoc Committee on Fuel Subsidy, unearthed massive fraud and systemic manipulation. Many of the individuals and companies implicated in these scandals are believed to be part of the network now resisting reforms and market liberalization.

The Dangote Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos, is not just another industrial project. It is the single largest oil refining complex in Africa and arguably the most audacious private-sector intervention in Nigeria’s oil and gas value chain. The facility has the capacity to produce:

• 50 million liters of petrol per day
• 15 million liters of diesel
• 3 million liters of aviation fuel
• And other petrochemical products including polypropylene and fertilizer inputs

Since commencing the sale of refined petrol in September 2024, the refinery has already started disrupting the fuel import market. Nigeria, which imported more than 90% of its refined petroleum products in 2022, is beginning to see a decline in its dependency on foreign refineries. This has naturally sparked resistance among those who benefit from the status quo.

Dangote pointed out that some of these cabals were also behind the political and media pushback against President Bola Tinubu’s bold decision to remove fuel subsidies in 2023. The subsidy removal was seen as a major win for fiscal responsibility and market efficiency, though it triggered short-term inflationary pressures.

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“The same groups that opposed the subsidy removal are now funding campaigns against our refinery. They don’t want it to work because it would end their era of easy money,” Dangote lamented.

While President Tinubu has publicly supported the Dangote Refinery and market-based fuel pricing, his government is under pressure to balance economic reform with political realities and public expectations. Critics argue that if resistance to the refinery gains traction within government, it could undercut the benefits of subsidy removal.

This isn’t the first time Nigeria’s private sector pioneers have clashed with entrenched interests. In sectors like power generation, telecommunications, and aviation, powerful monopolies—both public and private—have often undermined reforms. But what makes Dangote’s case unique is the sheer scale of investment and national importance of his refinery.

Observers note that Dangote’s success would mean:

• A potential end to Nigeria’s $10 billion annual fuel import bill
• Strengthening of the naira due to reduced forex demand for fuel purchases
• Job creation for over 100,000 direct and indirect workers
• Lower cost of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel in the medium to long term
• Industrialization through reliable access to petrochemical derivatives

Clearly, not everyone wants that outcome.

Despite the challenges, Dangote exuded his characteristic calm confidence at the Lagos forum.

“We’re fighting, and the fight is not yet finished. But I have been fighting all my life, and I am ready and 100 percent sure I will win at the end of the day,” he said.

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His statement reflects the grit that made him the first African to build a self-financed refinery of this magnitude. It also hints at the deeper institutional and political battles that often accompany reform in Nigeria’s rent-seeking economic ecosystem.

Beyond Nigeria, the Dangote Refinery has implications for the West African sub-region and beyond. Many neighboring countries, including Benin Republic, Ghana, Togo, and Cameroon, rely heavily on imported petroleum products, mostly from European refineries. With Dangote’s facility operational, these countries could now source fuel more cheaply and quickly from Lagos, boosting regional trade and energy security.

International oil companies (IOCs), particularly those who abandoned refining in Nigeria due to regulatory uncertainty and low margins, are also watching closely. If Dangote succeeds, it could inspire more private-sector investment in refining, storage, and distribution infrastructure across Africa.

For the average Nigerian consumer, the refinery holds the promise of:

• Stabilized fuel prices, particularly if the naira strengthens
• Improved product quality due to proximity of supply
• Job creation in logistics, retail, and supply chain
• Reduced smuggling of subsidized fuel across borders

But these benefits could be delayed or diluted if vested interests succeed in slowing down or discrediting the refinery’s operations.

If Dangote’s allegations are accurate—and there’s historical evidence to support his concerns—it underscores the need for the Nigerian government to protect strategic investments from internal sabotage. Without political will, no amount of private capital can reform the oil and gas sector.

Already, there are signs that the regulatory environment remains fragile. Licensing delays, sabotage of pipeline infrastructure, forex scarcity, and lack of security for refined product distribution could stifle the refinery’s efficiency.

Stakeholders argue that the government must:

• Strengthen the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA)
• Ensure transparent pricing frameworks
• Protect against cartel lobbying
• Encourage public-private partnerships in infrastructure

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The Dangote Refinery represents a rare beacon of hope in Nigeria’s troubled energy landscape. But hope alone cannot overcome entrenched corruption, political inertia, and economic sabotage. As Dangote fights off what he describes as a “cabal,” his battle is more than personal—it is a proxy war over the soul of Nigeria’s economy.

If he wins, it could mark the beginning of genuine transformation in a sector long plagued by inefficiency, opacity, and exploitation. If he loses, the message to local and foreign investors will be loud and clear: Nigeria may not yet be ready for industrial-scale reform.

Only time—and political courage—will tell which path the country chooses.