FG Raises Alarm as 24 Million Pupils Drop Out Before Reaching Senior Secondary School
The Federal Government has expressed grave concern over Nigeria’s escalating school dropout crisis, revealing that about 24 million pupils fail to advance beyond primary school each year, raising alarms about the country’s future human capital and economic stability.
Speaking at a ministerial roundtable on zero-rated data and devices for Nigerian teachers held in Abuja on Thursday, October 23, the Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, disclosed that newly digitized data from the Nigeria Education Management Information System (NEMIS) revealed a staggering dropout pattern across the 21 states currently captured on the platform.
According to Alausa, while approximately 30 million children were recorded as enrolled in primary schools across the 21 states, only about 10 million transitioned to junior secondary school (JSS 1)—a loss of 20 million pupils. Even more concerning, only six million pupils were found to have made it to senior secondary school, leaving another four million children unaccounted for in the transition.
“The information we’re seeing on that digital platform is scary,” Alausa lamented.
“From the 21 states that have uploaded their data, we have about 30 million children in primary schools. From primary to Junior Secondary School, that number drops to 10 million—20 million children gone. We can’t find them. Then, from Junior Secondary to Senior Secondary, another four million disappear. It’s a national emergency.”
The Minister noted that the education sector is now confronting one of its most serious crises in decades, warning that Nigeria risks producing an uneducated generation incapable of driving innovation, productivity, or governance in the years ahead. He stressed that such a massive dropout rate would have long-term consequences on the country’s social cohesion, crime levels, and economic competitiveness.
While presenting the data, Alausa outlined several major factors driving this unprecedented attrition rate: poverty, insecurity, early marriage, child labour, poor infrastructure, and teacher shortages.
He explained that millions of children, particularly in the North-East, North-West, and parts of the South-South, drop out of school due to persistent insecurity—ranging from banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping to community displacement caused by conflict and natural disasters.
“In states like Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Borno, and Niger, schools are under siege. Children can’t go to school if they don’t feel safe,” he said. “Parents would rather have them at home or send them to hawk for survival than risk their abduction or death on the way to school.”
He further lamented that child labour and economic hardship continue to play a decisive role. Many families, especially in rural areas, rely on children to supplement household income, forcing them into street hawking, farming, or artisanal work at an early age.
Alausa revealed that the dropout crisis is even more severe among girls. In some northern states, only one in five girls completes junior secondary education. Early marriage and gender-based violence remain major obstacles to female education.
According to a 2025 UNICEF report referenced during the roundtable, Nigeria currently has one of the world’s highest rates of out-of-school girls, with approximately 7.6 million girls aged 6–17 either out of school or unable to advance due to cultural barriers and inadequate facilities.
“Education is not just a right—it’s a lifeline,” Alausa said. “When a girl drops out, we lose an entire generation of potential teachers, doctors, and leaders. It is not just an educational issue; it is a developmental tragedy.”
To address this challenge, the Minister announced that the Federal Ministry of Education has embarked on a major digital education reform using NEMIS, which now includes biometric data of schoolchildren. This will enable government agencies to track enrollment, attendance, and dropout patterns in real time, allowing for more targeted policy responses.
“The days of manual data collection are gone,” Alausa said. “By 2026, the entire school census will be digital. We are integrating datasets from WAEC, JAMB, and other education bodies to monitor academic progression from cradle to career.”
He added that the Ministry, in partnership with UNICEF, is working to deploy zero-rated internet access and low-cost learning devices for teachers to enhance digital inclusion in schools, especially in underserved regions. This initiative is part of the broader Smart Education Framework being championed by President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.
Alausa commended UNICEF for its technical assistance and praised President Tinubu for providing both the political will and financial support necessary to digitize Nigeria’s education system.
Education experts, civil society groups, and development partners have welcomed the government’s move but warned that technology alone will not solve the dropout crisis.
Dr. Uche Nwokorie, an education policy analyst, said that while digital tracking is important, structural inequalities such as teacher shortages, dilapidated classrooms, and inconsistent funding must be addressed.
“Technology can expose the gaps, but it can’t fill them,” Nwokorie said. “We need sustained investment in school infrastructure, teacher welfare, and parental awareness programs. Otherwise, we’ll be tracking dropouts in real time without actually preventing them.”
Similarly, the Coalition for Universal Basic Education (CUBE) urged the Federal Government to complement data-driven solutions with strong community engagement. “We must bring local leaders, traditional rulers, and religious figures into the conversation. Many parents don’t see education as a priority until it becomes a local movement,” the coalition stated.
Experts warn that the long-term implications of Nigeria’s dropout crisis could be catastrophic. A generation without basic education, they say, will exacerbate poverty, widen inequality, and increase insecurity.
Professor Bamidele Ayo, a development economist, told reporters that Nigeria’s economy could lose up to ₦14 trillion annually in potential productivity due to out-of-school youth. “Every dropout represents a loss of GDP, innovation, and manpower. The consequences are not just social—they’re economic,” he explained.
Ayo added that high dropout rates also contribute to rising youth unemployment and urban crime. “When millions of young people are unskilled, the streets become their classroom. It’s a ticking time bomb,” he said.
Representatives from UNICEF Nigeria at the event reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Nigeria’s education reforms. The agency’s Education Specialist, Ms. Aisha Mukhtar, stated that the organization would continue to provide technical assistance in data management, teacher training, and community sensitization.
“UNICEF believes that every Nigerian child deserves access to quality education,” Mukhtar said. “We are pleased to see the government take ownership of education data through the NEMIS platform, which will help us design evidence-based solutions.”
Mukhtar revealed that UNICEF and other development partners are funding school re-enrollment campaigns targeting children displaced by insecurity in the North-East and North-West, with special emphasis on integrating internally displaced children into safe learning environments.
The Minister announced that the Federal Government will soon unveil a National Retention and Re-enrollment Strategy aimed at bringing back millions of dropouts into the education system. The plan will include:
- Conditional cash transfers to families who keep their children in school.
- Free meals and health checks for pupils in rural communities.
- Deployment of security personnel around vulnerable schools.
- Construction of girl-friendly schools with separate toilets and sanitary facilities.
- Introduction of flexible schooling hours for children of farmers and artisans.
According to Alausa, the government is also considering a National Education Bond, to be launched in 2026, to raise funds from the private sector for rebuilding schools and training teachers.
The roundtable also focused on how digital inclusion for teachers could help curb dropout rates. Many Nigerian teachers, particularly in rural areas, still lack access to the internet or affordable smart devices.
Alausa emphasized that under the Zero-Rated Data for Teachers Initiative, educators will be able to access online resources, digital classrooms, and professional development programs without data costs. “Teachers are the backbone of education. We must empower them to teach better, not just harder,” he said.
Mrs. Grace Agbaje, a teacher from Kogi State who attended the meeting, described the plan as “a long-overdue revolution.” She said, “We’ve been teaching with outdated tools. If teachers can access modern learning platforms, our students will benefit, and fewer will drop out.”
Despite the grim statistics, Alausa insisted that the situation is not irreversible if Nigerians unite to confront it head-on. He appealed to state governors, local councils, corporate organizations, and communities to treat education as a shared national priority.
“No single government can educate 30 million children alone,” he said. “Education is a collective responsibility—from parents to teachers, from governors to traditional rulers. Every child we save today is a leader we secure for tomorrow.”
The revelations from the NEMIS data have jolted the Federal Government into recognizing the depth of Nigeria’s education crisis. With nearly 24 million pupils disappearing from the school system before reaching senior secondary school, the urgency of the situation can no longer be ignored.
While the new digital initiatives represent a forward-thinking leap toward accountability and efficiency, experts stress that the true battle lies in implementation—ensuring that technology translates into real classrooms, real teachers, and real learning outcomes.
Nigeria’s education future, as Dr. Alausa warned, “depends not on how fast we digitize our data, but on how decisively we act to keep every child in school.”
If the country fails to close the dropout gap, analysts fear that by 2035, Nigeria could face a generation of over 50 million uneducated youth, a demographic disaster with implications far beyond the classroom.
For now, the government’s resolve appears strong—but only time will tell if this concern will evolve into consistent, sustained reform or become yet another fleeting alarm in the long, troubled story of Nigeria’s educational decline.