INEC’s Recognition of Obi-Led LP Faction Is APC’s Trap to Weaken ADC Alliance, Split United Opposition
The Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) recent recognition of the Nenadi Usman-led Labour Party (LP) National Executive Committee — the same faction aligned with Peter Obi — has sparked mixed reactions across Nigeria’s opposition political spectrum. To many, especially insiders in the emerging opposition coalition that includes the African Democratic Congress (ADC), it is not just an administrative decision but a strategic political move, one that could potentially fracture hopes of a united front against President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.
Though the development was greeted with subdued celebration by Obi’s most ardent supporters, several opposition leaders, analysts, and coalition architects are sounding the alarm: what if this “recognition” is a well-timed political snare — a Trojan Horse disguised as legitimacy, planted to destabilise the unity-building efforts that have gained momentum since early 2025?
This report unpacks the INEC recognition saga, the internal tensions it ignites within the Labour Party and wider opposition movement, and the growing suspicion that it may serve as a sophisticated ploy by the All Progressives Congress (APC) to divide and dominate come 2027.
INEC’s official letter affirming Nenadi Usman’s leadership of the LP came after months of parallel congresses, court filings, and conflicting claims of legitimacy. The former Minister of Finance, Nenadi Usman — long associated with moderate political reformers — had assumed leadership following a party convention held in April, which Peter Obi and the Obidient Movement reportedly endorsed.
By mid-July, after reviewing submitted documents and following internal legal consultations, INEC stated that it recognised the Nenadi Usman-led faction as the authentic leadership, citing procedural compliance with the party’s constitution and electoral guidelines.
The announcement seemingly brought relief to the Obi camp, which had previously battled court actions and a factional rebellion led by Apapa Lamidi and Abure Julius — both of whom were accused of being proxies for external forces bent on stalling Obi’s presidential viability in 2027.
YOU MAY READ
2027: Peter Obi Is Part of the Coalition From Day One, Yet to Be ADC Member – Spokesman
But within the broader opposition alliance — particularly among ADC leaders and political strategists pushing for a “mega coalition” to challenge Tinubu’s APC — the INEC recognition triggered a different response: caution, suspicion, and concern.
For months, high-level opposition meetings have been underway. ADC’s Ralph Nwosu, SDP’s Adewole Adebayo, select PDP elders loyal to Atiku Abubakar, and LP’s internal reformers had been quietly pushing to fuse their forces into a single electoral alliance by late 2025 — modeled loosely after Kenya’s Azimio la Umoja or South Africa’s Multi-Party Charter.
The proposal? A single, broad-based platform with consensus candidates from the local government level up to the presidency, capable of dethroning APC’s deeply entrenched state machinery.
Peter Obi was seen as a potential anchor of this coalition, not necessarily because of his political structure — which remains a work in progress — but because of his symbolic resonance with Nigeria’s angry youth, middle class, and urban electorates. His political identity was ripe for integration, not domination.
That is why INEC’s timing — confirming Obi’s internal dominance within LP even as cross-party coalition talks were advancing — has been viewed by critics as a disruption strategy. If Obi is now institutionally “safe” within LP, will he still remain committed to a broader, power-sharing opposition agenda? Or does this recognition subtly tempt him to consolidate around LP and run solo once again?
There’s a historical precedent for this suspicion. Nigeria’s ruling class has long been adept at exploiting opposition divisions, encouraging splinter factions, and using state institutions — from the police to the judiciary and INEC itself — as pressure tools in the political chess game.
In 2011, internal rifts within the ACN-PDP opposition landscape led to the dilution of a potential anti-incumbent force. In 2015, APC succeeded largely because it preempted such division, forging the Buhari-Tinubu alliance early enough to mobilise a unified front against Goodluck Jonathan.
Now in 2025, Tinubu’s political machinery — smarting from fuel subsidy backlash, economic downturn, and growing insecurity — appears keen to prevent a repeat of 2015 from the other side. One approach? Ensure that the 2027 opposition is as fragmented as the 2011 PDP.
INEC’s recognition of Obi’s LP faction — while legally defensible — is being viewed through that lens. Is this the APC’s “controlled explosion,” allowing one part of the opposition to feel emboldened and self-sufficient, thus disincentivising coalition compromise?
As one ADC strategist put it anonymously:
“Obi is not the enemy. But this recognition could make him behave like he doesn’t need anybody. And that plays right into the hands of APC. They want a repeat of 2023, where Obi and Atiku split the anti-Tinubu votes.”
The Nenadi Usman-Obi faction now officially holds the reins, but the road ahead is far from clear. Julius Abure, the embattled former national chairman, insists that due process was not followed in his removal and has vowed to continue his legal challenge. His faction is also rumoured to have ties to high-ranking APC figures, making him a dangerous spoiler in the run-up to 2027.
Meanwhile, Lamidi Apapa — once dismissed as a clownish interloper — has found new legal backing and claims to have filed fresh contempt proceedings against the Usman faction. The courts remain a battlefield, and the risk of conflicting judgments, injunctions, and disqualifications continues to hover over the party.
With Obi now backed by INEC’s recognition, the pressure is on to unify the party and clean house. But as he consolidates power internally, his posture toward external opposition actors — particularly PDP and ADC figures — will become the real litmus test.
Will he extend a hand toward Atiku? Will he seat at the same table as Ralph Nwosu and Donald Duke? Will he compromise on joint primaries, alliance manifestos, and coordinated campaign funding?
Or will he — emboldened by official validation — double down on a solo path that echoes his 2023 insurgency but risks a 2023-style outcome?
So far, the response to INEC’s move has been mixed. In the ADC camp, some officials are furious, interpreting it as a state-backed gambit to isolate Obi from coalition unity. Others are more measured, viewing it as a logistical resolution that now enables clearer negotiations.
One ADC working group member, speaking on condition of anonymity, said:
“This is not the time for anyone to become selfish. INEC recognising Obi’s faction does not mean he will win on his own. We still need to unite. If Tinubu runs again, fragmentation is defeat.”
Within PDP, especially among the “Atiku-core” faction, the development is being watched with interest. Some believe that Obi’s solidified position in LP gives him bargaining power to negotiate from strength in coalition talks. Others fear it could reignite 2023-style friction, especially if power-sharing and zoning debates resurface.
The essential question remains: is the 2027 united opposition dream still alive?
Technically, yes. INEC’s recognition of one LP faction may stabilise the party, but it does not preclude coalition-building. In fact, a Labour Party with legal clarity and centralised leadership may be easier to negotiate with than one beset by factional chaos.
What matters now is Obi’s next move.
If he leans inward — focusing solely on consolidating LP structures, internal nominations, and brand-building — the opposition will splinter once more. But if he leans outward — calling a summit of opposition party leaders, embracing consensus candidacy models, and allowing cross-party campaign platforms — then this recognition could become a launchpad, not a landmine.
It is also up to other parties — PDP, ADC, SDP — to resist the urge to isolate Obi or return to their tribal and egotistic instincts. The truth is, no single party can defeat APC on its own. A mega-coalition, or at least coordinated candidacy sharing across critical regions, is the only path to electoral victory.
INEC’s recognition of the Nenadi Usman-led Labour Party faction marks a significant chapter in the evolving 2027 narrative. For Obi’s camp, it is a vindication of internal control. For the broader opposition, it is both a challenge and an opportunity — a reminder that political unity is as fragile as it is essential.
The fear among many in the ADC and other camps — that this development is a strategic trap by APC to weaken emerging unity — should not be dismissed. Nigerian politics has always been a battlefield of subtle sabotage and backdoor manipulations.
But the solution is not paranoia or recrimination.
The solution is coalition discipline, visionary compromise, and an unwavering focus on the bigger goal: removing a governing structure that many believe has failed to deliver on the promises of 2023.
Peter Obi now stands at a political crossroads. The certificate from INEC may hand him the keys to Labour Party’s house — but only coalition unity can unlock the gates to Aso Rock.