Nigeria’s Total Fertility Rate Drops to 4.8 Children per Woman
Nigeria has entered a new demographic era. The country’s total fertility rate—the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime—has fallen to 4.8, according to the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. That figure represents a significant decline from 5.3 in 2018 and carries profound implications for health policy, economic planning, and the nation’s long-term population trajectory.
At first glance, the difference between 5.3 and 4.8 may appear modest, but demographers stress that it marks a meaningful shift for Africa’s most populous nation, where fertility levels have historically remained stubbornly high despite decades of advocacy for voluntary family planning. Nigeria’s fertility transition has been slow compared to global averages, yet the recent pace of decline has surprised even experts at the National Population Commission and the Ministry of Health. For the first time since 1999, when NDHS data collection began, nearly every state recorded either a plateau or a decline in fertility. This new reality is beginning to reshape how policymakers view population growth, social service delivery, and the future of labour and education.
Dr. Iziaq Adekunle Salako, the Minister of State for Health and Social Welfare, unveiled the NDHS findings during a national dissemination workshop in Abuja. He explained that Nigeria’s demographic landscape is gradually responding to the expansion of family planning services, improved education for women, and the effects of urbanization. Between 2018 and 2024, Nigeria has seen consistent progress in reproductive health indicators, he said. The fertility rate now stands at 4.8 children per woman. While this still remains above the global average, it signals a turning point, implying that families are gradually becoming smaller, healthier, and better able to invest in their children.
The report shows that modern contraceptive use among married women rose from 12 percent in 2018 to 15 percent in 2023, with a corresponding increase in the satisfied demand for family planning to 37 percent. Each percentage point represents thousands of women gaining access to reproductive health services that were previously unavailable or unaffordable. For the government, the figures provide both optimism and urgency. Nigeria still has a long way to go before achieving the demographic dividend that comes from sustained fertility reduction. The focus now is on closing gaps in access, affordability, and cultural acceptance of family planning.
Despite the national average of 4.8, fertility levels remain uneven across regions. Northern Nigeria, particularly the North West and North East zones, continues to record higher rates—some states still averaging over six children per woman—compared to parts of the South where fertility has fallen below four. Urban areas are leading the change. Cities like Lagos, Port Harcourt, Enugu, and Abuja have seen fertility drop closer to three children per woman, reflecting higher educational attainment, delayed marriage, and economic pressures that make large families less practical. In rural communities, however, traditional expectations and limited access to healthcare keep fertility high.
Professor Obiageli Ezeh, a demographer at the University of Ibadan, says this divergence is predictable. Fertility is as much a social phenomenon as it is biological, she explained. In urban settings, people face higher costs of living and more opportunities for women in education and employment. Rural households still depend on large families for labour and social status. So, the pace of decline will remain uneven for a while.
The 2024 survey also brought encouraging news about maternal and child health. The under-five mortality rate fell from 132 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2018 to 110 per 1,000 in 2024—a substantial improvement that health experts link to better immunization coverage, improved nutrition, and the growing use of skilled birth attendants. Antenatal care coverage now stands at 63 percent, up from 58 percent in 2018. Skilled birth attendance—the presence of trained health personnel during delivery—rose from 43 percent to 46 percent, and postnatal coverage within two days after delivery improved from 38 to 42 percent.
Yet not all indicators tell a positive story. Neonatal mortality, the rate of deaths within the first 28 days of life, rose slightly from 39 to 41 per 1,000 live births. This stagnation alarms health officials. Almost half of under-five deaths occur within the first month of life, meaning Nigeria’s health facilities, especially at the primary care level, must do more to handle complications of labour, infection, and premature births.
In response, the Ministry of Health has pledged new interventions under the Maternal and Maternal Fatality Reduction Initiative and the Nigerian Child Survivor Act. These frameworks focus on improving investment targeting, strengthening coordination among health agencies, and expanding community-level health insurance schemes. The government is also scaling up the National Family Planning Blueprint, which aims to achieve a modern contraceptive prevalence rate of 27 percent by 2030. Plans include training twenty thousand community health extension workers, equipping five thousand primary health centres, and expanding access to long-acting reversible contraceptives in every local government area.
In partnership with international donors such as UNFPA, USAID, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Nigeria’s health agencies are designing new awareness campaigns to combat myths about family planning and to promote male involvement in reproductive decision-making. Fertility decline in Nigeria cannot be divorced from the rise in girls’ education and women’s empowerment. NDHS data show that women with secondary or tertiary education have, on average, 2.7 fewer children than those with no formal schooling. The spread of secondary school completion rates among girls—from 47 percent in 2018 to 55 percent in 2024—has played a decisive role in delaying marriage and childbirth.
Civil society groups are also contributing. Organizations like the Planned Parenthood Federation of Nigeria and the Women Advocates Research and Documentation Centre have expanded outreach in conservative areas, using female religious leaders to champion reproductive health. The conversation has shifted from limiting births to planning families. Women now talk about having the number of children they can cater for, rather than what tradition dictates. That quiet revolution is happening across the country.
The Executive Chairman of the National Population Commission, Hon. Nasir Isa Kwarra, underscored the NDHS as a cornerstone of evidence-based governance. For policymakers, the NDHS is not merely statistics; it is a compass that tells the direction of national development. The 2024 NDHS, Nigeria’s sixth since 1999, surveyed forty-two thousand households across all states and the FCT between December 2023 and May 2024. Fieldwork teams included enumerators, health workers, and data analysts who collected information on fertility, mortality, nutrition, HIV prevalence, domestic violence, and household living standards.
For the first time, NDHS data collection was fully digitized, using tablets equipped with GPS technology to ensure transparency and reliability. Kwarra noted that data is not just a technical output; it is a public good that empowers decision-making. Nigeria’s current population, estimated at 226 million, remains the largest in Africa and the sixth in the world. But the fertility decline could mark the beginning of a transition toward slower growth and a more balanced age structure.
Demographers project that if the trend continues, Nigeria’s population growth rate could fall from 2.6 percent annually to 2.1 percent by 2035. That would mean an eventual stabilization near 400 million people around mid-century, rather than the 440 million once forecast. The real opportunity lies in the so-called demographic dividend—a period when the working-age population grows faster than dependents, creating a potential boost to economic productivity.
Dr. Francis Obasi, a population economist at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, described the trend as a chance Nigeria cannot afford to miss. If fertility keeps dropping while education and job creation rise, he said, the country could witness a demographic dividend like East Asia experienced in the 1980s. But if young people remain unemployed, the window will close, and high population growth will again become a burden.
Nigeria’s urbanization rate, currently around 54 percent, is accelerating. Cities draw people into new lifestyles that naturally reduce fertility—smaller housing, higher living costs, and exposure to modern ideas about gender equality. A 2024 study by the Lagos Bureau of Statistics found that nearly 70 percent of married women under thirty in Lagos State used at least one form of contraception. The figure is less than 15 percent in most rural northern states. This urban-rural disparity explains much of the national variation in fertility. Urban women tend to work, pursue education, and marry later, cutting their childbearing years by almost half. That alone reshapes national fertility patterns.
Despite progress, resistance to family planning remains strong in many communities. Religious and cultural leaders wield immense influence over reproductive norms. In predominantly Muslim northern states, misconceptions about contraception as un-Islamic persist, even though Islamic scholars have issued clarifications supporting birth spacing for health reasons. Christian clergy in parts of the South have also voiced moral concerns, linking contraceptive use to promiscuity. The government’s approach has therefore shifted from confrontation to dialogue. Officials now frame the issue around family well-being, child survival, and maternal health rather than population control. Once people understand that, acceptance increases.
Faith-based health networks, including the Christian Health Association of Nigeria and the Islamic Medical Association of Nigeria, are now partners in the national reproductive health program. Their clinics provide counselling, birth spacing services, and maternal care under the NDHS monitoring framework. Nigeria’s youth, who make up about 63 percent of the population, are also changing the landscape. Surveys show that their attitudes toward family size and marriage are shifting rapidly. In a 2024 youth survey, 68 percent of respondents said they plan to have fewer than four children, citing economic uncertainty and lifestyle aspirations.
For many young Nigerians, especially in cities, the notion of large families is increasingly outdated. They emphasize quality over quantity in parenting. Social media has amplified this shift. Influencers and health advocates use digital platforms to discuss menstrual health, contraception myths, and male responsibility in family planning—topics once considered taboo.
A sustained drop in fertility could reshape Nigeria’s economic future. With fewer dependents per household, families can allocate more resources to education, nutrition, and healthcare. At the macro level, slower population growth could ease pressure on infrastructure, job markets, and social services. However, economists warn that the benefits are not automatic. If economic growth and job creation do not outpace population growth, Nigeria may only experience a frustrated youth population rather than a productive one. Policymakers are urged to synchronize demographic policy with economic planning—investing in education, industrialization, and social protection to convert fertility decline into sustainable development.
Nigeria’s fertility decline mirrors broader trends across sub-Saharan Africa. Countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, and Ghana have already dropped below four. Kenya’s total fertility rate stands at 3.4, while Ghana’s is 3.6. Nigeria’s slower pace reflects its size, diversity, and cultural patterns. Yet demographers believe that once fertility falls below five, transitions tend to accelerate. It’s like pushing a boulder down a hill—once momentum builds, every factor, from urbanization to education, reinforces the next.
Nigeria’s goal, under its National Population Policy, is to reach replacement-level fertility—around 2.1 children per woman—by 2050. Achieving that would align the country with global demographic norms and create conditions for inclusive growth. Still, challenges remain formidable. Access to modern contraceptives is inconsistent across rural clinics. Stock-outs, limited funding, and poor data tracking hamper service delivery. Cultural barriers persist, and health worker shortages in northern regions limit outreach.
Unintended pregnancies remain a concern. The NDHS reports that 19 percent of births in 2024 were unplanned, a figure that has barely changed since 2018. Addressing this requires not only contraceptive supply but also comprehensive sexuality education and male engagement. Furthermore, climate change and insecurity—particularly in the North East—are disrupting health services, pushing thousands of women into internally displaced persons’ camps where reproductive health support is minimal.
Globally, fertility decline is linked to economic transformation and human development. From Europe’s industrial revolution to Asia’s modernization, societies that reduced fertility early reaped economic benefits. Nigeria’s current shift positions it at a crossroads similar to what Indonesia faced in the 1970s or India in the 1990s. UN experts argue that Nigeria’s vast youth population could become its greatest asset if nurtured through quality education, gender equality, and healthcare. But without these investments, it could also become a source of instability. Demography is destiny only if policy leads the way, they say. Nigeria’s challenge is to turn numbers into opportunities.
As the NDHS 2024 data reverberates through ministries and donor agencies, policymakers are reassessing long-term projections. The National Development Plan is being revised to incorporate demographic trends, while the next census—long delayed—is expected to integrate NDHS data to improve accuracy. The Population Commission is developing a new Population Management Bill, which will establish a legal framework for coordinating demographic and development policies. “We must move from counting people to making people count,” Kwarra said at the Abuja launch.
Meanwhile, civil society organizations continue to push for transparency and citizen engagement. The Nigeria Health Watch advocacy network recently launched a campaign titled “4.8 and Falling,” urging Nigerians to understand what the fertility decline means for the country’s future.
Nigeria’s fertility decline from 5.3 to 4.8 children per woman may seem like a small numerical shift, but its social and economic significance cannot be overstated. It reflects progress in reproductive rights, education, and women’s empowerment, yet it also exposes deep inequalities that still divide the nation. The road ahead demands sustained political will, increased investment in healthcare, and cultural sensitivity in addressing family planning. If managed wisely, this demographic turning point could mark the beginning of Nigeria’s transformation from a high-growth, high-dependency society to a balanced, prosperous one.
As Dr. Salako summarized at the NDHS presentation, fertility is not just about numbers; it is about choices, opportunities, and the kind of future Nigeria wants to build for every child.